Watch your money grow

Watch your money grow
Buying the right timepiece can pay off quickly
Peter McGarrity
SCMP Jan 09, 2011

jaeger_lecoultre

Buying a new watch is in many ways similar to buying a new car – a premium is paid for the latest models and once you take it out of the dealer’s showroom its value will likely drop by around 30 per cent.

However, in certain circumstances it is possible to make money from buying watches. At the top end of the market, it is easier simply because you can buy more exquisite pieces, the supply of which is strictly limited by the manufacturer.

For example, at a recent Sotheby’s auction in Hong Kong a 2009 Patek Philippe diamond and platinum perpetual calendar sold for HK$2.1 million, handing the owner a healthy HK$500,000 profit on the purchase price in under a year.

Now before you rush out and buy an expensive watch – and try to justify the purchase to your spouse as a wise investment – there are certain factors to consider. In the middle range of the market (HK$40,000 to HK$100,000) it is considerably more difficult to make money from your collection.

Vanessa Herrera, head of the watch department at Sotheby’s Hong Kong, said: “If you want to buy a watch as an investment in this sector of the market, you should focus on brands that have an established history and are able to tie in their newer pieces to that history, creating a narrative that purchasers can relate to.”

Certain brands such as Patek Philippe, Rolex and Cartier have been very successful at this, and so it is no surprise that their watches do particularly well at resale. For example, Patek has created an aura of timelessness and nostalgia by implying that their watches are heirlooms to be passed down to the next generation and the current owner is just a temporary custodian.

Panerai is another brand that uses this technique with great success. The company, which originally made military instruments for the Italian navy, now makes huge diving watches. The advertising features the company’s military connections and the connotations associated with this: precision, robustness, manliness.

These factors, plus an ever-increasing demand (often from desk-bound businessmen) for larger and more rugged timepieces, have helped add to the desirability factor of the watches.

As a result, select Panerai titanium models from only five or six years ago are now selling for more than double their original price.

Herrera’s other suggestion for those buying in the middle range is to buy recently discontinued models of successful brands that have been replaced with updated versions.

“In the short term, when a new model of a successful brand is launched, people will be looking to buy that model, but during this time the recently discontinued pieces are neglected and so the price drops. I recommend you take the opportunity to pick up one of these watches during this time because when the novelty of the new model has worn off, the price [of the discontinued model] will go up again,” she said.

If you are interested in investing, Hong Kong is as good a place as any in the world to start. China is the largest market in the world for Swiss watches, accounting for more than 25 per cent of total worldwide sales.

Hong Kong-based international finance lawyer Neil Campbell has been buying for about 15 years and his collection includes six Rolexes, two Jaeger-Le Coultres, two Cartiers, a Panerai and a Franck Muller. His primary motive for buying watches is pleasure – he enjoys looking at them and above all wearing them.

However, Campbell, who has never sold one of his watches, is also an astute reader of the market. Many of the watches in his collection have gone up in value and most, if not all, have at least maintained their value.

He considers one of his best purchases to be a Jaeger-Le Coultre with a rose gold case and a black dial. Jaeger no longer makes this watch with a black dial and has no plans to do so in the near future.

“A dealer in Switzerland told me to hang on to this watch as it is in much demand and that if I lost it I would be unlikely to be able to get hold of another one,” he said.

Another of his successful purchases is a Rolex Daytona – again with a black dial. “This watch retails at HK$73,000 but it is almost impossible to buy a new one from a Rolex dealer. I picked this one up for HK$82,000 a couple of months ago and it is already retailing on the second-hand market at HK$95,000.”

For would-be investors, the watch market is a highly visible one as manufacturers publish the recommended retail purchase price for models and authorised dealers are bound by this recommendation. The internet has also transformed trading. It is now easy to purchase watches from dealers around the world and compare prices.

However, as with buying anything on the internet, there are issues to consider. One of the main stumbling blocks is that the seller is unlikely to be an authorised dealer and any warranty it gives will not be backed by the original manufacturer.

Other common problems include the difficulty in confirming whether you will receive the watch’s original case, tools and receipt – the absence of which will affect value if you try to resell. There are also many fakes.

Most serious collectors avoid the internet simply because there is no substitute to seeing your purchase first hand. Campbell cites an example of how he once saw a Rolex Milgauss with a green sapphire crystal (it gives a greenish hue around the edge of the dial) on the internet and was not particularly impressed. But later when he was shown one by a dealer, he liked it so much, he bought it on the spot.

If you are uncertain about the value of the watch that you want to buy or sell, you can always contact an auction house. Sotheby’s, for example, has a database on watch prices and tracks sales around the world. Even if you have no intention of bidding at an auction you will be able to speak to an expert and access some top quality advice free of charge.

When you are purchasing a watch with a view to resell, it is important to remember that even though the watch market is global, there are some regional variations. There is a strong preference in Asia for new pieces, whereas in Europe a vintage or antique watch that has obviously been worn and reeks of old money can command a premium. Even flaws such as the discolouration of the dial – a common occurrence on certain types of vintage and antique Rolexes – can add value to the piece.

According to Julian Chow Shum of David Watch, “the trend in Western markets is for solid, durable, practical watches which are suitable for everyday use. In the Asian market, we like more luxury, more diamonds, rose gold and complications”.

International watch dealer Marc Djunbushian said of the vintage and antique market: “It is difficult to make money in this sector of the market if your budget is under HK$100,000.

“If you have a bigger budget, there is money to be made, especially in minute-repeating watches and enamel watches, because both require the attention of master craftsmen. What I have learned from my 15 years’ experience as an expert is that perfection, rarity and complication will always bring a profit.”

Djunbushian recommends “watches from the ’70s that use different materials and have unusual designs” as more affordable investments. Already dealers in Europe are holding on to these pieces in anticipation of future demand.

Another tip from both Djunbushian and Herrera is pocket watches. These types of European watches are in high demand in China (especially the ones in gold) and good pieces can still be picked up for a reasonable price.

If you are thinking purely in terms of investment, few would dispute that there are much easier ways of making money than in the watch market, especially if your budget is limited. However, if you are interested in watches, then it seems that if you follow a few simple principles it is possible to combine your interest and either maintain the value of your collection over time or even realise a healthy profit.

Hugh Hendry

Maverick fund manager shares his contrarian views, obsession with China

The New York Times in London
Jul 25, 2010

Hugh Hendry has a big mouth, as Hugh Hendry will tell you.

With a sharp wit and a sharper tongue, Hendry, a plain-spoken Scot, has positioned himself as the public contrarian thinker of London’s very private hedge fund community.

The euro? It’s finished. China? Headed for a fall. President Barack Obama? “If there was a way to short Obama, I would,” says the man who runs Eclectica Asset Management.

It is an old-school macroeconomic fund company with a think-big, globe-straddling style more akin to the Quantum Fund, of George Soros fame, than to the hi-tech razzle-dazzle of Wall Street’s math-loving quant analysts.

At 41, Hendry is emerging from the normally secretive world of hedge funds to captivate fans and foes with a surprising level of candour.

Last May, on British television, he verbally sparred with Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, and perhaps the best-known economist writing on developmental issues.

Before that, he took on Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate, about the future of the euro. “Hello, can I tell you about the real world?” Hendry interjected at one point. It was a huge hit on YouTube.

His verbal pyrotechnics have won Hendry a reputation for challenging the economics establishment. He is regarded and appreciated by many as overly pessimistic about, well, just about everything.

His big worry lately has been China. Like James Chanos, a prominent hedge fund manager in the United States, Hendry says he believes China’s days of heady growth are numbered. A crisis is coming, he insists.

Hendry has made – and sometimes lost – money for his investors. Eclectica’s flagship fund, the Eclectica Fund, is up about 13 per cent this year, besting by far the average 1.3 per cent loss among similar funds.

But returns have been erratic – “too much sex, drugs and rock ‘n roll” for some investors, he concedes. In 2008, the Eclectica Fund was up 50 per cent one month and down 15 per cent another. Hendry plans to change that.

The firm bet correctly that the financial troubles plaguing Greece would eventually ripple through to the market for German bonds, considered the European equivalent of ultra-safe US Treasury securities. But the firm lost money betting on European sovereign debt in the first quarter of last year.

Last week, Hendry was musing about the financial world in his office behind a scruffy shopping mall in the Bayswater section of London. No Savile Row here: He was sporting a white oxford shirt, jeans and blue Converse Chuck Taylor sneakers, along with a three-day stubble and hipster horn-rim glasses.

His latest obsession is China. He likens the country to Starbucks: good at growing quickly but not so good at creating wealth. “The idea is that things would happen today that are commonly thought of as impossible, most notably a significant reversal of China,” Hendry said.

Maps cover the walls of his office. On one, blue magnetic pins plot his recent trip through China. He filmed himself there in front of huge, empty office buildings and giant new bridges in the middle of nowhere – signs, he said, of a credit bubble.

Hendry is devising ways to bet on a spectacular deterioration of China’s economy. He declined to divulge any details.

His outspokenness has won him both fans and detractors.

Marc Faber, the money manager known as Doctor Doom for his bearish views, calls Hendry “a deep thinker”. “He has strong views and expresses them, not to get publicity but because he has a great understanding of the markets,” Faber said.

Some London investors are less charitable. Two declined to comment on Hendry, saying they did not want to “get into a fight” with him.

Hendry certainly does not fit the stereotype of a discreet London moneyman.

The son of a truck driver, he was the first in his family to attend a university – Strathclyde, in Glasgow, not Oxbridge. He studied accounting and joined Baillie Gifford, a large Edinburgh money manager.

Frustrated that he could not challenge the investment strategies of his bosses, he jumped to Credit Suisse Asset Management in London. There, a chance meeting with an equally opinionated hedge fund manager, Crispin Odey, led to a job.

Before long, Hendry struck out on his own.

The inspiration for his investment approach comes from an unlikely source: The Gap in the Curtain, a 1932 novel by John Buchan that is borderline science fiction. The plot centres on five people who are chosen by a scientist to take part in an experiment that will let them glimpse one year into the future.

Hendry calls the novel “the best investment book ever written” because it taught him to envision the future without neglecting what happened leading up to it, a mistake many investors make, he said.

More Ayn Rand

aston_martin_one_77_images_001

“In the name of the best within you, do not sacrifice this world to those who are its worst. In the name of the values that keep you alive, do not let your vision of man be distorted by the ugly, the cowardly, the mindless in those who have never achieved his title.

Do not lose your knowledge that man’s proper estate is an upright posture, an intransigent mind and a step that travels unlimited roads. Do not let your fire go out, spark by irreplaceable spark, in the hopeless swamps of the approximate, the not-quite, the not-yet, the not-at-all. Do not let the hero in your soul perish, in lonely frustration for the life you deserved, but have never been able to reach.

Check your road and the nature of your battle. The world you desired can be won, it exists, it is real, it is possible, it is yours.”

~ Part Three / Chapter 7 This is John Galt Speaking

Ayn Rand

“The world you desired can be won, it exists, it is real, it is possible, it is yours. But to win it requires total dedication and a total break with the world of your past, with the doctrine that man is a sacrificial animal who exists for the pleasure of others. Fight for the value of your person. Fight for the virtue of your pride. Fight for the essence, which is man, for his sovereign rational mind. Fight with the radiant certainty and the absolute rectitude of knowing that yours is the morality of life and yours is the battle for any achievement, any value, any grandeur, any goodness, any joy that has ever existed on this earth.”

~ Ayn Rand’s last public speech (New Orleans Nov 1981)

Knowledge

Avoid processing more information than you can digest: it is better to know less and understand more.

Data is not information until it has been collected, collated and organized.

Information is not knowledge until it is absorbed and comprehended.

Knowledge is not understanding nor wisdom, until it is associated with life experience and given perspective.

bquote

Don't settle

apple

“Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found it yet, keep looking. Don’t settle.”

~ Steve Jobs

STATEMENT ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BY DR. NOURIEL ROUBINI

July 16, 2009

STATEMENT ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BY DR. NOURIEL ROUBINI

The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today – that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.

“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor markets is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

“So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the global economy; but as I have consistently argued the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

Thriving bear sees many more US bank failures

Thriving bear sees many more US bank failures
Reuters in New York
Apr 04, 2009

John Jacquemin, a hedge fund manager of Mooring Financial Corp, who predicted the credit crisis and tripled his investors’ money over the past two years, warned that hundreds of United States banks were doomed to fail and that an economic recovery was far away.

Mooring Financial has posted 10 consecutive years of gains snapping up loans at distressed prices, while his two-year-old Intrepid Opportunities Fund generated 222 per cent returns betting against corporate debt and financial stocks.

Beyond a housing glut and slower consumer spending, Mr Jacquemin said he remained bearish because banks and regulators had not confronted the mountains of bad loans still on banks’ books.

While banks needed to mark down bonds to prevailing market prices, “with whole loans, they don’t have to and they haven’t”, he said.

“If they did, there would be literally hundreds and hundreds of insolvent banks,” he said.

Eighteen years ago, Mr Jacquemin was a commercial lender who snapped up loans sold by Resolution Trust and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp in the wake of the savings and loans crisis.

Mr Jacquemin said government agencies were aggressive in closing failed banks, selling branches and deposits to the highest bidders. Today, he contends, officials have been more tentative, allowing weak banks to hobble along.

“If the banks sold these loans for what they could get, they would be insolvent,” Mr Jacquemin said. “The difference between now and the 1990s is the government today is not closing banks down.”

This approach would only prolong the crisis.

“They’re not being aggressive because it would scare the hell out of us,” Mr Jacquemin said. “But we can’t get rid of the problem the way they’re approaching it now … [The government] ought to be closing the weak banks and helping recapitalise the stronger ones.”

Little-known Mooring Financial has generated returns on par with renowned credit market bear John Paulson and his hedge fund firm Paulson.

Mr Jacquemin’s Mooring Capital Fund has never had a losing year and returned 12 per cent a year, on average, for 10 years buying distressed loans and debt.

The excesses of the credit bubble – reckless leverage and frothy property markets – prompted him to launch Intrepid Opportunities in February 2007.

The fund shorted indices that tracked bond and mortgage markets, as well as bet against banks, credit card lenders and other financial companies.

The new fund soared 56 per cent last year, when equities fell 40 per cent and the average hedge fund dropped 18 per cent.

Mr Jacquemin said the firm, which manages US$400 million, was seeking new investors.

While bank shares have rallied in recent weeks, Mr Jacquemin has maintained his negative views on corporate bonds and finance stocks.

He predicts rising commercial property defaults and worries that consumer spending will never rebound to pre-crisis levels.

Mr Jacquemin said housing prices would not improve until the glut of empty units was absorbed – a process that will take at least 18 months and as long as 2-1/2 years.

GIC cuts loss in one fell swop

See also
http://chenreiki.com/blog/archives/376
http://chenreiki.com/blog/archives/350
http://chenreiki.com/blog/archives/327

Mon, Mar 02, 2009
The Business Times

GIC cuts loss in one fell swop

By Conrad Tan

THE Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC) will convert all its preferred shares in Citigroup into common stock to cut its losses. The swop will give it an 11.1 per cent stake in the troubled US bank, which yesterday announced a sweeping plan to boost its common equity base. The conversion will pare GIC’s paper loss on its original US$6.88 billion investment in Citi from 80 per cent or US$5.5 billion to 24 per cent, or US$1.67 billion, based on Thursday’s closing price of US$2.46 for Citi shares.

Separately, Citi said yesterday that it plans to swop up to US$52.5 billion of its preferred stock, including US$25 billion of the US$45 billion held by the US government, for ordinary shares.

Citi also recorded a massive US$10 billion charge for impairment of goodwill and other intangible assets in the fourth quarter, resulting in an additional net loss of US$9 billion for the final three months of last year.

For GIC, the decision to convert its shares appears to have been the lesser of two unpalatable choices. Citi yesterday suspended dividend payments on its preferred shares as well as common stock, which means that GIC would lose the 7 per cent annual dividend that it has been receiving if it chose not to convert its holdings.

The conversion will make GIC the second-biggest shareholder in Citi with a stake of about 11 per cent, compared to about 4 per cent at the time of its original investment. The US government will be Citi’s largest shareholder, owning 36-38 per cent of Citi’s common equity. The final stakes will depend on how many investors in the publicly held tranche of Citi’s preferred stock decide to participate in the share conversion.

One thing is certain: Existing ordinary shareholders will suffer massive dilution of more than 70 per cent. Citi shares plunged 37 per cent to US$1.55 at the start of US trading yesterday after the bank’s announcement. At that price, GIC’s unrealised loss on its Citi investment would be US$3.6 billion. The profitability of US banks ‘is likely to be impaired in the next two years’, said Ng Kok Song, GIC’s group chief investment officer in a statement.

‘GIC’s view is that with this latest move, Citigroup’s capacity to weather the severe economic downturn will be strengthened.’

Before yesterday’s announcement, the market value of the preferred shares held by GIC had already slumped 80 per cent to just US$1.376 billion since its initial investment in Citi, as mounting losses made it less likely that the bank would be able to keep up its dividend payments.

The US government, GIC and other investors that bought Citi preferred stock alongside GIC in January last year will receive common stock at a price of US$3.25 a share. Those investors, including Saudi Arabia’s Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, have agreed to the exchange, said Citi.

At the conversion price of US$3.25, GIC will get some 2.12 billion common shares in exchange for its US$6.88 billion in preferred stock. Based on Thursday’s closing price of US$2.46 a share, GIC’s stake after conversion is worth US$5.21 billion.

That puts GIC’s unrealised loss on its original US$6.88 billion investment in Citi at US$1.67 billion after the conversion, compared to US$5.5 billion before.

Under the original terms of GIC’s investment in Citi, it would have had to pay a much higher conversion price of US$26.35 for each common share, GIC said. That would have translated into a stake of just 261.1 million shares, worth a mere US$642 million at Thursday’s closing price for Citi shares.

But the conversion also means that GIC will now bear greater risk than before, as an ordinary shareholder. It also gives up for good the 7 per cent annual dividend that it previously earned on its preferred shares.

Citi chief executive Vikram Pandit said that the conversion plan had just ‘one goal’ – to increase the bank’s tangible common equity or TCE. Converting its preferred shares into ordinary equity will boost its TCE ratio – the focus of stress tests by US regulators starting this week as a key measure of the bank’s ability to withstand further losses if the recession is worse than expected.

Ordinary shareholders are the first to suffer any losses, so common equity is seen as the highest quality of capital that a bank holds, and the size of a bank’s common equity base relative to its assets is considered the purest measure of its buffer against losses.

The hope is that by raising its TCE ratio, Citi will be able to weather the worst recession that the US has seen in decades. The plan is expected to increase its TCE as a proportion of its risk-weighted assets from less than 3 per cent now to 7.9 per cent.

Crucially, it does so without the need to inject more money from the public purse. That makes it unnecessary for the US government to seek the approval of lawmakers for more funds amid growing public fury over the use of taxpayers’ money to bail out large banks.

But the US government could still inject more capital into Citi – in the form of mandatory convertible preferred shares – if the stress tests show that the bank’s capital cushion still needs bolstering. That would mean further dilution for ordinary shareholders, including GIC, when the shares are eventually converted to common stock.

‘As a shareholder, GIC supports the initiative by Citigroup and the US government to strengthen the quality of the bank’s capital base in view of the challenging economic environment,’ GIC said in a statement.